(Chuck Muth) – In light of campaign finance reports for 2021 now being posted, I’ve updated my odds for the Republican primary for governor…
Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo swamped the field in this pre-primary primary money chase, reporting $3.1 million raised with $2.6 million cash-on-hand. And that doesn’t even include the $2.5 million reported by the Lombardo-supporting Stronger Nevada PAC. Gonna be tough for anyone to overcome, especially in such a crowded field.
North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee reported raising almost $1.6 million, with $1 million coming from a loan to his campaign and $800,000 cash-on-hand. Lee’s legislative and executive-level experience exceeds that of the other candidates in the race, but he’s yet to catch fire among GOP voters, many of whom still have reservations about the sincerity of his party-switch last year.
Dark horse, first-time candidate Guy Nohra reported raising $1.3 million, with $735,000 coming from personal loans and $729,000 cash-on-hand. Norha’s largely self-funded campaign will have the gas to go the distance, but will need an earthquake-level change in the race to present him an opportunity to pass the others and land the checkered primary flag the way another outsider, Glenn Youngkin, did last year in Virginia.
Reno attorney Joey Gilbert reported raising $326,000, with just $65,000 cash-on-hand. Gilbert has the most passionate grassroots supporters/volunteers of any campaign in the state, but still…very long odds to finish first in the primary. Like Nohra, he’s gonna need something dramatic to shake things up and give him a passing lane.
Las Vegas City Councilwoman Michele Fiore raised a little over $527,000 but only has around $190,000 cash-on-hand. Conservatives still appreciate her conservative record, but they’re not rallying behind her gubernatorial campaign the way many expected.
Despite his high name ID, former U.S. Sen. Dean Heller reported raising just $650,000…but it was even worse than that. To get to that figure, Heller had to transfer almost $200,000 from his old Senate campaign and lend himself $100,000. In other words, he only “raised” around $350,000 from donors actually supporting his campaign. Stick a fork in him; he’s done.
The other candidates pretty much raised bupkis and would be better off switching to another race for another office where they’d have an actual shot at the brass ring. They won’t, of course. But they should.
Here’s my updated odds-to-win assessment…
- Lombardo: 2-1
- Lee: 7-1
- Nohra 10-1
- Gilbert: 25-1
- Fiore: 100-1
- Heller: 250-1
- Fred Simon: 500-1
- Tom Heck: 1,000-1
- Barak Zilberberg: 5,000,000,000-1
- Eddie Hamilton – fuggetaboutit
(Disclaimer: Odds are published for entertainment purposes only. No wagering allowed – except for illegal side bets among friends or political adversaries.)
* In a 2019 speech captured on video and revealed last week, New York City’s new black mayor, Eric Adams, was caught referring to white police officers as “crackers.” Imagine if he had been a white mayor referring to black police officers as (the n-word).
Fortunately for Adams, he’s a registered Democrat, so he gets a pass by the corporate media.
The Smell of Fear
“Cook Political Report says that Steve’s race is a toss-up. Please rush a donation today and stop our far-right opponents from flipping Nevada red.” – Sisolak for Governor campaign, 2/7/22
Election ’22 Update
* Almost three times as many Democrats switched their party registration to Republican than the other way around in January. Red tide building.
* As I reported last Thursday, Nevada’s GOP establishment has recruited Las Vegas attorney, outgoing president of the state’s marijuana association, and unsuccessful Clark County Commission candidate Tisha Black to run against conservative firebrand attorney Sigal Chattah in June’s Republican primary for attorney general. Black made it official today. So…game on.
* In response to the Black announcement, Chattah released a statement: “Tisha Black is a progressive plant who maxes out donations to radical left politicians like Harry Reid and Catherine Cortez Masto. By funding Nevada’s most radical Democrats over the years, Tisha Black has not only helped defeat Republicans at the ballot box, she has literally built and advanced the Democrats’ disastrous government-controlled trifecta we live under in our state and our nation.”
* Republican Assemblywoman Annie Black, who jumped into the race for Nevada’s 4th Congressional District just a month ago, announced on Monday that her campaign raised a sizable $250,000 in January alone. She’ll square off with Sam Peters and Jessie Vargas in the GOP primary.
* I attended the Nevada GOP’s “First Friday Happy Hour” Friday night. When I got to the car afterwards, there was a Joey Gilbert for Governor card on the windshield. As I’ve been saying, Gilbert’s supporters are the most passionate of any campaign in the state. But can he recruit enough of them by the June primary?
* Democrat County Commissioner Tick Segerblom – the former state senator who led the effort to change the name of Las Vegas’ airport to Harry Reid International – won his Democrat primary against Marco Hernandez in 2018 by just 181 votes out of some 12,000 cast. I hear a rematch may in the works, but this time Marco would run as an independent in the general election rather than as a Democrat in the primary.
* Would anyone be interested in a ballot initiative to change the name of Harry Reid International to Las Vegas International?
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“I keep trying to see Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer’s point of view, but I can’t seem to get my head that far up my ass.” – Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA)
“Joe Biden is the president just like OJ is innocent.” – Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake
“Replacing Trump with Biden was supposed to bring joy to the land from sea to sea. But just the opposite… For most of the past 50 years, about one in ten Americans have described themselves as unhappy. Now one in four do.” – Stephen Moore
“These are going to be really tough elections. I hold out hope that Biden’s numbers will rebound later this year. But in the meantime, there will be enormous pressure on Democrats in tough races to run away from President Biden.” – Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer
“Democrats are IMPLODING. The 2022 target map to flip the House is growing. Everything is in play. Dig deep and get organized and we will win a bigger victory than any clown in DC can imagine.” – Alex DeGrasse
“Been practicing for more than two years for my Olympic event: Ignoring the Olympics. I’ve won four previous golds in this event, going for my fifth.” – Las Vegas Review-Journal editor Steve Sebelius
UPDATE: Tax Pledge Signers ‘22
- Sam Brown – U.S. Senate
- Mark Amodei – Congress District 2
- April Becker – Congress District 3
- Noah Malgeri – Congress District 3
- John Kovacs – Congress District 3
- Annie Black – Congress District 4
- Sam Peters – Congress District 4
- Chance Bonaventura – Congress 4
- Guy Nohra – Governor
- Joey Gilbert – Governor
- Michele Fiore – Governor
- Tom Heck – Governor
- Tony Grady – Lt. Governor
- Mack Miller – Lt. Governor
- Tim Duvall – State Senate District 16
- Jim Wheeler – State Senate District 17
- Jeffrey Stone – State Senate District 20
- Heidi Kasama – Assembly District 2
- Richard McArthur – Assembly District 4
- Stan Vaughan – Assembly District 20
- Sam Kumar – Assembly District 25
- Tom Daly – Assembly District 26
- Melissa Blundo – Assembly District 36
- Vida Keller – Assembly District 38
- Ken Gray – Assembly District 39
- Leo Blundo – Nye County Commission
- Alan Bigelow – Las Vegas City Council Ward 2
If you’ve already signed and your name is not on the list, please forward a copy of your Pledge to firstname.lastname@example.org. If you need a copy of the Pledge to sign, shoot me and email noting what seat you’re running for and I’ll send it to you.
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com