CONGRESSIONAL
The biggie yesterday was the primary in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. President Trump’s last-minute endorsement put Dave Flippo over top. But it also put CD2 in play for the Democrats in November, as our Brittany Sheehan explained back in April.
The gutter-level campaign waged by Flippo and his unscrupulous consultants against a very honorable former state senator, James Settelmeyer, won’t soon be forgotten. This could well turn out to be a pyrrhic victory.
If Flippo loses CD2 in November, Republicans will need to flip one of the three congressional Clark County seats just to maintain the status quo.
The best chance will be in CD3, where Marty O’Donnell will be the nominee against potty-mouthed incumbent Democrat Rep. Susie “F-U” Lee.
Carrie Buck easily won her CD1 primary (78%), but unseating Democrat Rep. Dina Titus in that district is, at best, a longshot.
Cody Whipple easily dispatched (62-22%) and crushed the loud-mouthed gadfly Rhonda Kennedy in the CD4 primary. Kennedy needs to move back to California and stop polluting Nevada politics.
STATEWIDE
Gov. Joe Lombardo “squeaked” out a primary win with 90% of the vote. All six of his munchkin competitors – who had no business in this race – lost to “None of the Above.”
The danger for the guv is…Flippo.
Lombardo will now face A-Ron Ford in the general and the D’s are loaded for bear. This will be their #1 targeted gubernatorial race nationwide and the bad blood Flippo created in northern/rural Nevada could cause many Republicans there to stay home.
Every Republican who stays home, thanks to Flippo, will basically be a vote for A-Ron. GOTV for low-propensity GOP voters will be critical in this race.
It looks like perennial candidate Jim Marchant will be the GOP nominee for Secretary of State. As of this writing, he’s up 2.5 points over Shirley Folkins-Roberts, who was a late entry in the race.
I hope Marchant can pull off a miracle and unseat The Cisco Kid – the worst SOS in Nevada history – but I ain’t betting the farm on it.
In the attorney general’s race, Lombardo-endorsed Adriana Guzman Fralick crushed perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, 60-35%. “Tark Fatigue” is real and this might be the final nail in his political coffin for big races.
Fralick will now go up against Nicole Cannibizzaro in the general and it’s gonna be a barn-burner.
From the Department of It’s Not the Best Candidate That Wins but the Best Campaign, two-time loser Drew Johnson is, as of this writing, leading Jeff Carter by about 2,500 votes with mail ballots still trickling in for the next few days.
Carter was clearly the more experienced and better qualified candidate. And while Johnson didn’t run a good campaign, he may have run a “just good enough” campaign in the primary.
But his financial shenanigans that were uncovered and revealed in the primary will be even more pronounced by the D’s in the general.
The D nominee is currently the Deputy Treasurer under Zach Conine who, by all accounts, has done a good job. My guess is if Johnson is the GOP nominee, the GOP loses that seat.
LEGISLATURE
In the only competitive GOP State Senate primary, my man George Harris ran a textbook direct response marketing campaign. Truly impressive. And won in a 59-41% landslide.
He now has an excellent shot at flipping this D seat in November if he follows the same playbook.
And my two “rising star” candidates – Erica Neely (AD9) and Kelly Chapman (AD41) – won their primaries despite outside interference that forced them into unnecessary primaries in the first place.
Both will have tough general elections in “swing” districts. But unlike in 2024, both seats will be “open” seats this year, so if they can get the financial support necessary, they could flip two blue seats red.
Erica – a homeschooling soccer mom – will go up against a former heroin addict who moved into the district after Assembly Speaker Yeager quit rather than face her again after she nearly knocked him off in 2024.
Kelly – an tough-on-crime/pro-law enforcement candidate – will likely go up against a goofball socialist public school union teacher/environmental activist who currently is leading in his own primary by just 49 votes as of this morning.
And let me give a little shoutout here to Assemblywoman Lisa Cole.
While the current “leaders” of the Assembly Republican Caucus chose not to support Erica and Kelly in their primaries, Cole stepped up and stepped in early – and never wavered in her support.
Thank you, Lisa.
The third most flippable Assembly seat in November is District 37. Jill Douglass – who also serves as chair of the Clark County Republican Party – didn’t have a primary, but has an excellent shot at knocking off the D incumbent. Go Jill, GO!
SOME INTERSTING LOCAL RACES
In the Clark County Commission District F race, Heidi Kasama’s totally dishonest campaign – falsely claiming newcomer Albert Mack was a Hillary Clinton supporter via fake, AI-doctored images of him wearing an “I With Her” t-shirt – worked.
Nothing to be proud of…but Mack will be back. Tough lessons learned. Promising political future if he wants it.
In the Henderson City Council Ward 3 race, Democrat Jennifer Atlas bested scandal-plagued GOP incumbent Carrie Cox in the four-way non-partisan race, 37-31%. While this is generally a GOP friendly district, Cox could well lose it in the general if she’s not careful.
In the Las Vegas City Council Ward 2 race, Luke McCarthy – a career government employee who describes himself as a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent depending on what audience he’s talking to – only nudged out underfunded conservative Republican Shannon Norstrom by a point-and-a-half.
Both will now square off one-on-one in the general. Go Shannon, GO!
For Clark County Assessor, Judy Joe defeated assclown Kevin Child. Hopefully Child will now go away. But he’s kinda like herpes. It won’t kill you, but it keeps coming back.
In the highly heated Washoe County District Attorney race, Wes Duncan ousted incumbent DA Chris Hicks, 58-42%.
In Washoe County Commission District 2, Jon Killoran defeated incumbent Mike Clark, 57-43%.
In the non-partisan Reno mayoral race, Democrat “Calamity” Kate Marshall and Republican Kathleen Taylor advanced to the general. My favorite part of that race was goofball attorney Devon Reese coming in fourth with just 9 percent of the vote.
Over in Nye County, embattled conservative firebrand Michele Fiore lost her bid to retain her Justice of the Peace position.
Campaign Boot Camp graduate Debra Thomas knocked off incumbent Ron Boskovich in the County Commission District 4 race. Go Debra, go!
Fellow Campaign Boot Camp grad Matt Sadler ousted incumbent County Commissioner Debra Strickland in District 5.
Kayla Ball knocked off who I would describe as the worst county Clerk in all of Nevada when it comes to election administration. Hopefully we can get some things cleaned up there now.
And Bill Hockstedler finally lowered his sights from U.S. Senate and State Senate and won the Public Administrator primary, knocking off incumbent Ginger Simpson. Now he’s in a position to start working his way UP the political food chain.
And lastly, there was one ballot question in Henderson to extend a tax increase to fund parks.
Personally, I was opposed…but they did it RIGHT in Henderson. They let the voters who would have to pay the tax vote on it – unlike the property tax and gas tax hikes some Republican legislators voted for last session.
And the voters approved it with 78% of the vote.
Now on to the general! Buckle up. Gonna be a wild ride in this mid-term, low-turnout election.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“I don’t understand much about politics…” – Liberal blubber-blogger Jon Ralston, 1/2/20