(Chuck Muth) – If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times: Republicans never blow an opportunity to blow an opportunity.
And man, did they blow it on Tuesday. “Bigly.”
There was no red wave. There certainly was no red tsunami.
Who could have seen it coming?
Well, in all due modesty…I did. As I wrote back in August…
“That ‘red wave’ Republicans have been counting on to carry them to victory in the November general election is starting to look more like a ‘red ripple.’ GOP campaigns, especially in Nevada, better start campaigning accordingly.”
Granted, Republicans in Nevada should win the governor’s race (the most important race on the ballot this year – Go Joe!), have a decent shot in the U.S. Senate race, and could pull out victory in a handful of other hotly-contested races.
But all the happy talk by some GOP party leaders that Republicans were well-positioned to win majorities in the Nevada Legislature didn’t even come close to panning out.
As I wrote way back last March…
“The political knuckle-heads running the GOP state Senate and Assembly caucuses have almost no chance to win back control of either house – even if a big ‘red wave’ crests in November – and will be lucky if they both don’t end up in super-minorities.”
At this point, the ballots remaining to be counted are mail-in ballots – where Democrats have a decided advantage. So don’t be surprised if a Republican candidate, especially in Clark County, who is only slightly ahead or is already behind goes down with the ship.
And if they do…knock off all this “election fraud” and “cheating” crap.
Yes, there are still legitimate concerns about the security of our elections. But that didn’t and won’t cost Republicans in tight races. The GOP’s failure to turn out its voters did.
Too many Republicans – just like in 2020 – stayed home. In fact, unless I’m reading the figures incorrectly, HALF of registered Republicans didn’t vote this year. As Hanlon’s Razor admonishes…
“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”
And Republicans aren’t known as the “Stupid Party” for nothing.
Which reminds me: Remember all that bragging, back-patting, and chest-thumping the GOP did last March about putting a Republican in every race this year? How’d that work out for us?
Republicans used a shotgun. Democrats used a rifle.
Democrats targeted specific races where they knew a Democrat incumbent was vulnerable – and protected them. And they targeted specific races where they knew a Republican was vulnerable – and took them out.
Republicans focus on being “fair.” Democrats focus on winning. As usual, Republicans played checkers while Democrats played chess.
And then there’s messaging.
Republicans seemingly had every issue going for them. Inflation, crime, border crisis…you name it. But they failed at SELLING them.
On the other hand, Democrats have figured out how to sell ice cubes to Eskimos.
When I’m training candidates and campaign activists, the three Muth’s Truths Golden Rules are…
#1: It’s Not the Best Candidate Who Wins, But the Best Campaign
Nevada Republicans had many better candidates again this year, but ended up losing because those candidates ran bad campaigns. Or, more to the point, see #3 below.
#2: Campaigns are About Marketing, Not Politics
Again, Republicans had the best political issues on their side this cycle; they just didn’t sell them very well.
#3: There’s More Incompetence in the Field of Political Consulting than in Any Field Other than TV Psychiatry
I was talking to a former state legislative candidate last night at a “watch party” and asked what he’d do differently were he to run again. He said the first thing he’d do is hire a different consultant.
And he’s right. He was as close to the “perfect” candidate you could get for that particular race – and lost anyway. 100% because his consultant totally mismanaged the campaign.
When it comes to first-time candidates being guided by incompetent consultants, it’s the blind leading the blind.
So what’s the good news?
I saw this coming even before June’s primary.
And as you know, I took a Muth’s Truths sabbatical and have been working for the past six months totally overhauling the operation of our grassroots organization, Citizen Outreach.
And the prime focus has been on developing a world-class campaign conservative training operation that focuses on sales and marketing, not 10-point political platforms and hum-drum cookie-cutter advertising.
You see, it’s simply not true that if you build a better mousetrap, people will beat a path to your door. You have to SELL that mousetrap to a skeptical public that either doesn’t know about it or doesn’t believe it.
I tried working with the party to bring this training to our candidates this cycle. They weren’t interested. They already knew it all.
But what they didn’t know is what they don’t know…which is how to sell ice cubes to Eskimos like the Dems do.
So I’m not waiting for party leaders in the 2024 cycle. Instead, here’s what I’m going to do…
We leave Friday for Citizen Outreach’s weeklong ConservaCruise to Mexico. I’m going to take that week to relax, decompress, have a few margaritas, wait for the final election results…and come back with a vengeance.
I’m not going to sit back and wait for orders from the top. Screw that. Too many of our “leaders” clearly have no idea what they’re doing.
Do I? Maybe yes, maybe no.
But I certainly can’t do any worse than they have. And, heck, I DID get a “dead pimp” elected to the Legislature in 2018. So maybe, just maybe, I know a little something about this stuff.
The predicted “red wave” should have been a done-deal this cycle. It wasn’t. Republicans once again blew a golden opportunity.
So let’s keep hope alive that Republicans eke out the win in the top races in Nevada.
Lick our “what might have been” wounds in the races we’re going to lose that we should have won.
And get ready to do it all again for 2024.
Because in politics, as in sports, there’s always next season.
Spring training for us will start in two weeks. Get ready for some big announcements that I’ve been holding back until the 2022 election was over.
And set aside a few shekels to help fund these upcoming efforts. Because you can’t save the world if you can’t pay the rent!
7 Worst Habits of Highly Unelectable People
- Picking the wrong race
- Picking the wrong district
- Picking the wrong issues
- Picking the wrong time
- Picking the wrong consultants
- Picking unnecessary fights with the media
- Picking door-knocking over fundraising
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“Tuesday’s election results came as a surprise to some conservatives, who reacted on Twitter with bitter disappointment and even anger, as a possible red wave hit like a toddler’s bathtub splash.” – FOX News
“We need a Republican overhaul. Trump pushed a bunch of candidates that SUCK and everyone knew it but we had no choice but to go along. We had everything on our side and missed the mark. DeSantis is the new head of the party, not a 76-year-old man.” – GOP strategist Caleb Hull
“The moral of the story from last night: ditch Trump like a bad toupee and elevate DeSantis.” – Newsbusters associate editor Nicholas Fondacaro
“While this November might feel like the end of the election season, it’ll unofficially signify the start of the 2024 election cycle. Yes, already. I know. I’m as bad as the stores already carrying Christmas decorations! But conservatives must prepare. The demand for trained conservatives is high and will remain strong.” – Carol Wehe Cocks, Leadership Institute
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.