(Chuck Muth) – Remember the Democrat presidential primaries in 2020?
Socialist-Democrat Bernie Sanders was on a roll. And it scared the tar out of establishment D’s. So one by one the other wannabes started dropping out of the race and lined up behind Joe Biden – not because they loved Biden, but because they feared Bernie was more likely to lose to Donald Trump.
The Republican establishment tried to do the same thing to Trump in 2016. One by one the dozen-plus GOP contenders dropped out and ultimately rallied (while holding their noses) behind Ted Cruz.
Well, a similar situation exists in Nevada’s GOP gubernatorial primary this year.
Joe Lombardo has jumped out into a HUGE lead in the GOP primary – both financially and in the polls. Indeed, the only foreseeable way to block his nomination would be if the challengers and the anti-Lombardo forces unite behind one alternative.
Not likely. Too many egos and not enough coordinated “strategery.”
So with official filing for office starting in just over a week, here’s an updated look at the race from my perspective…
Eddie Hamilton, Barak Zilberberg and Tom Heck are toast. Stick a fork in ‘em. They should run for a different office.
Fred Simon, according to a Nevada Globe report today, has infused his campaign with more than $1 million since the first of the year. If true, that takes his longshot bid to a new level – but likely too little, too late. He should have put that dough in BEFORE the December 31 reporting deadline.
Dean Heller is only still talked about because of his name ID from when he used to be somebody. He’d be smart to pull the plug and stick to making hay on his ranch in retirement.
Conservative firebrand Joey Gilbert – who has the most passionate volunteers of any campaign in the race – is stealing the thunder and support from Michele Fiore, who maybe should rethink her political ambitions and run for re-election to the Las Vegas City Council instead.
John Lee and Guy Nohra have plenty of gas in the tank, but have yet to catch fire.
Which brings me to the recent gubernatorial debate hosted by Chairman Jesse Law’s official Clark County Republican Party. Here’s some interesting data from a post-debate survey of attendees…
Asked which candidate they supported BEFORE the debate, Gilbert got 26% and Fiore 22% – splitting the anti-Lombardo/conservative vote.
However, when asked if their preference changed AFTER the debate, 11% said yes to Gilbert and 10% said yes to Nohra. So both definitely have an opportunity to improve their standing as more people get to know, see and hear them.
The problem for Fiore is that most people in Clark County already know her, so not much room for growth.
On the other hand, when asked which of the candidates they didn’t previously know, but were impressed with the most, Nohra grabbed 27%, indicating a lot of room for growth as more voters meet, see and hear from him.
The post-debate poll on “who you plan to vote for” in the primary showed Lombardo – who wasn’t there because he isn’t doing debates until after the close of filing – at 30%, Gilbert at 29%, Fiore at 20%, Nohra at 13%, Lee at 7%, Simon at 4% and Heller at a whopping…one-half percent (lol).
So I’d say the state of the race today is: Lombardo continues to be comfortably ahead, Gilbert and Nohra have picked up a little momentum, while Lee and Fiore have lost some traction.
All that said, here’s my updated odds…
- Joe Lombardo: 2-1
- Joey Gilbert: 10-1
- Guy Nohra 12-1
- John Lee: 15-1
- Michele Fiore: 125-1
- Fred Simon: 250-1
- Dean Heller: 500-1
- Tom Heck: 1,000-1
- Barak Zilberberg: 5,000,000,000-1
- Eddie Hamilton – fuggetaboutit
(Disclaimer: Odds are published for entertainment purposes only. No wagering allowed – except for illegal side bets among friends or political adversaries.)
The Laxalt Laxative: CORRECTION
The Adam Laxalt mailer I referenced in the last Muth’s Truths – which touted his Trump endorsement and used a landscape photo of Arizona instead of Nevada – was not sent out by the Laxalt campaign. It was mailed and paid for by the Club for Growth, a DC-based super-PAC.
And a new one from CFG – without the Arizona landscape – came out today. “The Swamp” takes care of its own.
In somewhat related news, the North Las Vegas Police Officers Association today endorsed Laxalt’s GOP primary opponent, Capt. Sam Brown, in their U.S. Senate race. Crack in the dam?
The Smell of Fear
“Election experts have ranked Nevada as one state most at-risk to flip red, and national Republicans are spending millions to make that a reality. So listen, I’m asking for your help to continue building a stronger Nevada and keep our battleground state blue. Can I count on to chip in $15 for my re-election campaign?” – Gov. Steve Sisolak, 2/20/22
New Tax Pledge Signers ‘22
- Amy Groves – Assembly District 19
- Gary Schmidt – Assembly District 40
For the complete, running list of taxpayer champions who have pledged to “oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes,” click here
If you’ve already signed and your name is not on the list, please forward a copy of your Pledge to firstname.lastname@example.org. If you need a copy of the Pledge to sign, shoot me an email noting what seat you’re running for and I’ll send it to you.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“Fried pickled onion farts now have a higher approval rating than Joe Biden.” – @catturd2
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com