Thanks to Biden, Nevada U.S. Senate GOP Primary Tightens

(Chuck Muth) – Going into the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s residency in the White House, The Hill reports his approval rating is “at an all-time low” at just 33 percent.

Leaving me to wonder: Who are those 33 percent of blind morons and can they tie their own shoelaces?

Biden has (a) botched COVID, (b) botched the border, (c) botched the economy, (d) botched the supply chain, (e) botched energy independence, (f) botched violent crime, (g) botched election security, (h) botched education, (i) botched the Afghanistan withdrawal, (j) botched Russia, (k) botched China, (l) botched North Korea and (m) botched the Middle East.

But other than that, he’s doin’ great.  Just ask CNN.

In addition, a new CBS poll out this week shows that only 36 percent of voters believe Biden’s efforts to deal with COVID are “going well.”  That compares to 66 percent who thought his anti-COVID measures were “going well” just six months ago back in July.

Meanwhile, another poll this week from Gallup shows the political ramifications for Biden and every other Democrat on the ballot this year.

“Americans’ political party preference during 2021 shifted from Democrat to Republican in the largest shift” since 1991, Newsmax reports.  Democrat identification dropped from 49 percent a year ago to just 42 percent today, while Republican identification shot up from 40 percent to 47 percent.

As former President Barack Obama once reportedly said of his former veep…

“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*ck things up.”

Which brings me to Nevada’s U.S. Senate race.

The incumbent, Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto-Reid, is being forced to campaign with the Biden albatross hanging around her neck because she’s wedded herself to Biden’s “American Last” agenda.

So in today’s political environment, either of the two main GOP candidates vying for the right to take her on in November have a realistic chance to snatch the snitch.

The odds-on favorite for June’s Republican primary is Adam Laxalt.

He sports the name of a famous grandfather who was revered in the state.  But that was over thirty years ago.  To most new Nevadans, the Laxalt name is essentially meaningless.

Laxalt also enjoys the largesse of The Swamp.  Establishment Republicans in DC have gone “all in” for him; filling his campaign treasure chest and using their influence and political power to stifle any discouraging words about their truly uninspiring candidate.

And, of course, there’s Donald Trump’s endorsement.  Valuable, without a doubt.  But also, un-determinative.  Remember, Trump also endorsed Dean “Never Trump” Heller in his re-election bid in 2018.  How’d that turn out again?

You see, just because you like pizza doesn’t necessarily mean you like anchovies.  And there’s a growing army of MAGA supporters who continue to back Trump but have also flocked to the camp of Laxalt’s primary opponent, Capt. Sam Brown.

Six months ago, Brown’s candidacy caught my attention.  How could it not with his compelling “wounded warrior” story.

Three months ago, his candidacy caught my interest after he posted raising over $1 million in the third quarter, matching Laxalt’s take.  That moved his campaign from simply credible to seriously viable.

But a question remained: Was that fundraising success just a flash in the pan or was it sustainable?

Well, we now have that answer. This FOX News headline this morning pretty much says it all…

“First-time Nevada GOP Senate candidate Sam Brown hauls in $1M for second straight quarter.”

Haven’t heard what Laxalt’s fourth quarter fundraising numbers are yet.  But even if he DOUBLES Brown’s take, that won’t be enough to diminish the growing support for Brown among conservative, Trump-supporting GOP primary voters in Nevada.

Big Mo’ is on the side of the Brownies.

The combat soldier and Purple Heart hero need not match the briefcase warrior dollar-for-dollar.  He just needs to raise sufficient dough to be competitive since he has the more compelling story.

And if Brown’s campaign spends the money he’s already raised wisely and steps up in its messaging, Laxalt could be toast in June for what would be an earth-shattering political upset.

Here’s Laxalt’s biggest problem (other than his personality deficiencies as a candidate) …

With the Senate tied at 50-50, the over-riding interest of GOP voters is winning in November.  Had Laxalt blown away Brown’s candidacy in the fundraising department, the primary contest would be all over.

But he didn’t.

And in the current political environment created by Biden, EITHER of the two candidates would be competitive, if not favored, in a general election matchup with St. Catherine.

So now that Brown has demonstrated he’s both credible and viable, the question for Nevada GOP voters will narrow down to: Which candidate would have the BEST chance vs. Masto-Reid.

And with all the political baggage Laxalt has strapped to his side, Brown’s fresh, though war-scarred face could be seen as the more electable.

I also see Laxalt’s campaign making the same cart-before-the-horse mistake my friend Sue Lowden’s campaign made in her 2010 bid for the nomination to face off against then-Sen. Harry Reid.

In that race, the Lowden campaign focused almost its entire campaign campaigning against Reid and pretty much ignored her primary opponents.  And we all know how that turned out.  She lost the primary to the grassroots insurgent campaign of Sharron Angle.

That’s the same thing the Laxalt campaign is doing with Brown.  They’re assuming Laxalt has this in the bag.  A done deal.  So they rarely even mention Brown’s candidacy, let alone campaign against him.

If they keep giving him the silent treatment, Brown could well sneak up on Team Laxalt and, Angle-like, bite him right in the arse in June.

But make no mistake, Sam Brown ain’t no Sharron Angle.

Nevada GOP primary voters underestimated Angle’s Biden-like ability to f- things up.  As it turns out – and the Reid camp knew this – Angle was probably the ONLY candidate who could have possibly found a way to lose to Reid in the general.  Which she did.

That won’t happen with Capt. Brown.

No, his campaign, as it sits today, isn’t the well-oiled, DC-fueled machine Laxalt presently enjoys.  But it’s not dysfunctional like Angle’s either.  He’s got a far more compelling story.  He is far more media savvy.  And his campaign is getting better and stronger every day.

And know this: With the Senate tied at 50-50, regardless of who wins the primary, a ton of national GOP money is going to flood into the state for the general election.  The seat is too important with national implications.  As long as Brown is viewed as credible and viable, the dough will flow.

And if he pulls off an upset in the primary against the DC-anointed candidate, he’ll absolutely be viewed as credible and viable in the general.

Laxalt is, indeed, the lead horse in the primary race right now.  But Brown is hot on his heels and pacing him; matching the front-runner stride for stride.

As we come down the stretch in May, Laxalt better not stumble or run out of gas.  If he does, Brown will blow right past him and leave everyone in the DC swamp – from Laxalt valet Ric Grenell to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell – with a dinosaur-sized egg on their face.

The bottom line is: Thanks to Biden’s disastrous “leadership,” EITHER Laxalt or Brown can beat Masto-Reid in November.

The question is: Will Nevada GOP primary voters let DC dictate who their nominee will be, or will they nominate an independent candidate committed to draining the swamp rather than turning it into a hot tub?

I’d set Laxalt’s odds right now at 2-1.  The Swamp is still powerful.  But at 4-1, Brown ain’t exactly a longshot.

Place your bets!  Place your bets!

The Smell of Fear

“Look, I have to give it to you straight: our fundraising efforts have taken a hit since the beginning of January.” – Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak, 1/14/22

Election ’22 Update

* Kevin McMahill, candidate for Clark County sheriff, raised an eye-popping $1.4 million last year.  His main opponent at this point, RINO Assemblyman Tom Roberts, reported raising just over $116,000 – including $5,000 from fellow RINO Assemblywoman Jill Tolles and $10,000 from the teacher’s union.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

“@SamBrownForNV raised ANOTHER $1 million? That’s twice now! You know what they say: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action! Eagerly awaiting the next report.” – Las Vegas Review-Journal editor Steve Sebelius

“The (Sam) Brown campaign said that the contributions came from over 15,000 donors the past three months, up from contributions from 12,000 during the previous quarter. … Brown’s fundraising haul will once again raise eyebrows in a GOP primary race…” – FOX News

“We aren’t funded by the Washington political class or PACs seeking a coronation. Thousands of patriots in Nevada and across America have rallied and donated to our campaign…” – Capt. Sam Brown

“President Joe Biden once claimed he wanted to unify the country. In one respect, he has: Most people think he’s doing a terrible job.” – Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Victor Joecks

“Democrats Warn That American People May Tamper with Next Election.” – Babylon Bee (satire)

“Let’s go Brandon. I agree!” – President Joe Biden

Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com