(Chuck Muth) – I’m breaking camp here in Carson City this morning and driving back to the barn today. And here are some quick notes, including a correction, addition, and clarification to yesterday’s Muth’s Truths PLUS…
Correction: I conflated the district numbers for Kelly Chapman and Erica Neely. The fundraising numbers and percentages were correct, but Chapman ran in Assembly District 8 and Neely ran in Assembly District 9.
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Addition: Kelly Quinn in Assembly District 5 wasn’t on anyone’s Tier 1 or Tier 2 list. But in looking at the results, he probably should have been.
Kelly pulled 46.96% of the vote – and had a Libertarian candidate in the race who pulled 2.19% – despite only raising $37,886. As such, this district should be added to the list of Assembly “battleground” districts for 2026.
That makes 10 seats that should be in play next cycle. And Republicans will only need to pick up 6 of them to get to a 21-21 tie if they hold all current Assembly seats – which should be no problem.
Clarification: The consultant in question who dropped the ball on so many Assembly battleground races this year was NOT Joe Weaver.
Joe was part of Team Lombardo on the ground and worked his arse off. I saw him time after time at events and rallies with the candidates – unlike the consultant in question – and was the “go to” guy when candidates needed assistance.
Now…
In addition to the consultant who was assigned to develop and implement the campaign strategies for several of the Tier 1 candidates who were let down by him, the other big problem, as alluded to yesterday, was the Assembly Republican Caucus (ARC).
These people – who I derisively refer to as the “Lord of the Flies” caucus – seemingly have a political death wish. They couldn’t organize a two-car funeral. A couple of examples…
Despite Gov. Joe Lombardo sticking his neck WAY out in endorsing about a half-dozen Assembly candidates early – some, more than a year ago – ARC didn’t get around to seconding his emotion, under pressure, until around March.
This was stupid and self-defeating.
Challenger candidates already have enough trouble raising money when running against well-funded, incumbent Democrats. And many of the big donors wouldn’t donate to a candidate unless/until the caucus gave them its official seal of approval.
If the governor was willing to risk his reputation and political capital to increase the number of Republicans in the Assembly, why didn’t the ARC members at least back him up?
I’m starting to think these people actually PREFER to remain in the minority. At the very least, it was political malpractice.
Here’s another…
Kelly Chapman (Tier 2) in Assembly District 8 didn’t have a primary challenger. She and her mom put together a written campaign plan that was viable and had been on the campaign trail for more than six months before filing opened in March.
Yet ARC’s 3-member screening committee refused to even send her candidacy to the full caucus for an endorsement vote.
Kelly, of course, won her primary in June. Yet the Lord of the Flies caucus STILL didn’t extend her its official endorsement – despite being the official nominee – until after LABOR DAY.
And then there was Brandon Davis (Tier 2) in Assembly District 34 – an “open” seat with no Democrat incumbent. Obvious pick-up opportunity.
Brandon ran an absolutely stellar campaign. The man has a marketing background and mindset, and it showed. He was also tremendously organized, and generously helped a number of his fellow Assembly candidates in their races.
Put the kind of campaign Brandon put together for any of the Tier 1 candidates and they would have crushed it at the polls.
Yet the ARC didn’t endorse him in his primary – which would have helped him raise money to go on to the general. And even after he became the GOP nominee in June, they still didn’t get around to endorsing him until September.
Worse, even though Brandon was recommended for endorsement last March by the 3-member caucus screening committee, he failed to get enough votes by the full caucus to get the official seal of approval.
Why not?
Well, word on the street is that one member objected to endorsing Brandon because he was a former Libertarian who switched parties and ran as a Republican and the ARC member had a Libertarian running against him this year.
Ugh. Talk about stuck on stupid.
The caucus also failed to aggressively back Erica Neely, Rafael Arroyo, and April Arndt because the three were running against Democrat Assembly leaders and some caucus members didn’t want to “get in trouble” and make the Democrats mad.
These people are comfortable in their minority status and didn’t have the balls needed to change their fortunes. They were too afraid of losing their table scraps by having the Democrats kill their comparatively meaningless bills.
As such, while I committed to the governor that I would not challenge any GOP Assembly incumbents this cycle – because it was so critical to protect his vetoes – all bets are off for 2026.
We have wishy-washy, often moderate, Republicans in solid Assembly districts throughout the state.
And even those with respectable conservative voting records should be considered for primary challenges next cycle if they lack backbone, fire in the belly, and aren’t willing to rock the boat.
Meanwhile, the 15 members of the Little Caucus that Couldn’t will be meeting this week to elect a new Minority Leader. Not surprisingly, it’s a mess.
Current Minority Leader P.K. O’Neill, I hear, is out.
The logical next leader should be Assembly veteran and current northern Assistant Minority Leader Jill Dickman. Alas, Jill – because she’s not insane – doesn’t seem to be interested in being the engineer of this train wreck. Can’t blame her.
If Jill’s out, Republicans need a FIGHTER with some political intuition and skills who bent over backwards trying to help battleground candidates this cycle. The obvious choice would be Assemblywoman Danielle Gallant, the current southern Assistant Minority Leader.
Alas, Gallant knows you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet. And she ain’t gonna win Miss Congeniality.
She calls a spade a spade, steps on toes, and sometimes hurts the tender widdle feelings of fellow caucus members. Indeed, she and I have had some, let’s say, intense conversations over strategy and tactics. So I get it.
But this leadership position isn’t a popularity contest. Majorities get to lead. And you ain’t gonna win a majority in the Assembly against these vicious Democrat incumbents by forfeiting the game without even playing it or playing it like it’s a game of tidily-winks.
If you want to win races in 2026, you have to start by creating issues and laying track during the legislative session in 2025. You need to pick fights – like Mel Gibson did in Braveheart. This is no time for timid souls.
Tom Hagen was an amiable and accomplished lawyer. But when Michael Corleone took over the family business, Hagen was sidelined because he wasn’t a “wartime consigliere.”
(If you’re not familiar with the reference, go rent “The Godfather.”)
I’m hearing that Assemblyman Rich DeLong and Assemblyman Greg Hafen are vying to be the new caucus leader. But neither is a wartime consigliere. I was DEEPLY involved in a number of Assembly races this cycle, and the two were ghosts.
If you want to win races, you have to do more than just write a few checks.
In addition, DeLong’s district is in Washoe County and the bulk of Hafen’s is in Nye County, while the problems – and opportunities – are in CLARK COUNTY where Gallant’s district is.
ARC members need to get over being butt-hurt and give Gallant a shot at possibly pulling off a Gingrich-like takeover of the Nevada State Assembly in 2026. The opportunity is there, and she’s proved her political mettle – whether caucus members like her personally or not.
No guts, no glory.
But don’t bet the farm on it. Remember, Republicans in general – and Assembly Republican Caucus members in particular – never blow an opportunity to blow an opportunity.
So unless the caucus injects some tiger blood into their system and elects either Gallant or Dickman this week as their new Minority Leader, the rest of us are just going to have to take the ball in our own hands and work around them in 2026.
And if that means primarying some weak, timid souls in solid GOP districts who are comfortable in their insignificance – well, so let it be written; so let it be done.
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.