(Chuck Muth) – There’s a new poll out on Nevada’s pivotal U.S. Senate race this morning. Some observations…
- The poll shows Democrat incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto-Reid beating Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, 44-35%.
- The same poll shows Democrat Resident Joe Biden’s “disapproval” rating at 53%. So St. Catherine’s 9-point lead over Laxalt indicates significant weakness for the former attorney general and front-runner who’s been endorsed by Donald Trump.
- Interestingly, the poll did NOT test St. Catherine against Laxalt’s GOP primary opponent, Capt. Sam Brown.
- The poll did, however, survey Republican support between Laxalt and Brown. But while Laxalt leads “bigly” in that head-to-head competition, 37-14%, HALF of respondents remain undecided.
- It should be noted that only 260 of the 619,340 registered Republicans in the state (as of the end of 2021) were surveyed and the poll’s margin of error is +/- 6.5%.
- While both Brown and Laxalt raised over $2 million in 2021, Laxalt reports having around $1.7 million cash-on-hand vs. Brown’s $732,000 cash-on-hand.
- I still believe that with all of Laxalt’s baggage, Brown would be the strongest GOP candidate to field in the general election. However, he has to pull a rabbit from the hat and win the June primary first.
After two statewide races – 2014 for attorney general and 2018 for governor – and all his high-profile work on the post-2020 election shenanigans, Nevada Republicans know Laxalt. So it should concern his campaign that only 37% right now are backing him.
His “ceiling” probably isn’t much higher.
Brown, on the other hand – despite his inspiring war hero story of almost dying in combat in Afghanistan – remains largely unknown in the political arena. So lots of room for growth.
His campaign needs to (a) get his story in front of more Nevada GOP voters between now and the primary, and (b) make the case for why he’d be the stronger candidate in the general.
Fact is, many voters – unlike readers of Muth’s Truths – haven’t really tuned into the 2022 elections yet. That’ll start to change mid-March after the close of official filing for office.
Brown’s going to have to capture the lion’s share of those undecided voters if he’s to be successful in his longshot bid to snatch the nomination from Laxalt.
Either way, here’s something everyone should keep in mind…
The U.S. Senate is currently split right down the middle between Democrats and Republicans, with cackling Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaker.
And Nevada is one of a handful of states in which the GOP has an opportunity to “flip” a seat from blue to red. So no matter which candidate, Brown or Laxalt, wins the primary, there will be a TON of outside, third-party money poured into this race for the general election.
I still believe either Brown or Laxalt can beat St. Catherine in the general. But over the next 4-plus months, Brown’s gonna have to make the case that his odds are better than Laxalt’s.
Tough hill to climb. Then again, Capt. Brown has climbed far more difficult hills. Don’t write him off yet.
The Smell of Fear
“I just got off the phone with the governor, and I’ll be honest with you: we’re getting worried.
Our January fundraising deadline is TONIGHT, and we still haven’t reached our $25,000 end-of-month goal.” – Eva Black, Finance Director, Sisolak for Governor, 1/31/22
Election ’22 Update
* John Kovacs, GOP candidate for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, has a new attack ad out on the race’s Republican front-runner, April Becker. Kovacs accuses Becker, a woman, of being anti-woman because…she accepted campaign contributions from former gaming titan Steve Wynn. Expect this mind-numbing attack to land with a dead-cat thud.
* Was told by two different people on Saturday at the Nevada GOP Winter Meeting that someone is doing a poll in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District pitting Republican Rep. Mark Amodei vs. Republican Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian. No idea who’s doing the poll, but interesting.
* Put Erica Neely on your radar screen. She’s running for Clark County school board and is a potential ROCK STAR. You heard it here first.
* Republican Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (Clark County) has announced she’ll be running for re-election this year.
* Republican attorney general candidate Sigal “Hang ‘em From a Crane” Chattah will be the VIP guest-of-honor at the Nevada GOP’s First Friday Happy Hour this week at the Ahern FREEDOM Hotel in Las Vegas. Just $10/person. Festivities start at 6:00 pm.
The Rob Lauer Report
Rob Lauer went to buy a pizza. After ordering, the counter-person asked if he wanted it cut into six pieces or twelve. “Six please, ” Rob said. “I could never eat twelve!”
UPDATE: Tax Pledge Signers ‘22
- Sam Brown – U.S. Senate
- Mark Amodei – Congress District 2
- Guy Nohra – Governor
- Joey Gilbert – Governor
- April Becker – Congress District 3
- Noah Malgeri – Congress District 3
- John Kovacs – Congress District 3
- Annie Black – Congress District 4
- Sam Peters – Congress District 4
- Jim Wheeler – State Senate District 17
- Jeffrey Stone – State Senate District 20
- Heidi Kasama – Assembly District 2
- Richard McArthur – Assembly District 4
- Stan Vaughan – Assembly District 20
- Tom Daly – Assembly District 26
- Melissa Blundo – Assembly District 36
- Vida Keller – Assembly District 38
- Leo Blundo – Nye County Commission
- Alan Bigelow – Las Vegas City Council Ward 2
If you’ve already signed and your name is not on the list, please forward a copy of your Pledge to firstname.lastname@example.org. If you need a copy of the Pledge to sign, shoot me and email noting what seat you’re running for and I’ll send it to you.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“If truckers quit their jobs, society would immediately collapse. If politicians quit their jobs, the world would become a better place. We need truckers more than anybody else. Honk Honk.” – Greg Price
“I’d rather have a Presidential Cabinet filled with truckers and farmers, over the current group of communists Joe Biden has put together.” – William Hall
“If you think I’m going to sit out there and sing ‘Don’t Tell Me How to Live’ or ‘We the People’ while people are holding up their f**king vaccine cards and wearing masks, that sh** ain’t happening.” – Kid Rock announcing he won’t perform at venues requiring masks and vaccine passports
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com