Nevada GOP Primary Update: Guv & U.S. Senate

(Chuck Muth) – Some new polling numbers have come out this week on Nevada Republican primary races for Governor and U.S. Senate.

In the Governor’s race, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has significantly extended his lead after getting the cherished endorsement of Donald Trump.  According to the new poll, Lombardo leads the pack with 35% of the vote.

Joey Gilbert, Lombardo’s nearest competitor – fresh off nabbing the endorsement of the Nevada Republican Party – got 15% of the vote, with “Unsure” coming in third at 13%.

Dean Heller’s name ID, thanks to some 30 years in public office (talk about a professional politician!), comes in fourth with 11% of the vote.  And North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, despite spending a small personal fortune on his race, comes in fifth with just 9%.

Newcomers Guy Nohra and Fred Simon each got 3% of the vote.

If it’s not over – because as Yogi Berra pointed out, it’s never over ‘til it’s over – the GOP gubernatorial primary appears to be down to a two-person race: Lombardo vs. Gilbert.

Now, if Heller, Lee, Nohra and Simon all announced they were withdrawing and throwing their support behind Gilbert, then maybe we’d have a nail-biter race on our hands.  And if pigs could fly…

Next…

According to the new polling results for the Senate race, Adam Laxalt is still ahead of insurgent challenger Sam Brown, 45-30%.  A seemingly comfortable lead.  However, with less than a month to go it appears Brown, not Laxalt, has a little bit of Big Mo’ going for him.

The fact that Laxalt is polling under 50% with 11% still “Unsure” – despite his $3 million-plus warchest, high name ID, DC connections, the endorsement by Trump and recent campaign visits by Sen. Ted Cruz, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – should be troubling for Team Laxalt.

And consider this…

A March poll showed Laxalt up by 38 points, 57-19%.  And an early May poll showed Laxalt up by 23 points, 50-27%.  And the latest poll shows the lead has been cut to 15 points.

So Laxalt has been steadily losing support while Brown has steadily increased it.  And it also appears Brown’s growing support is coming from Laxalt’s camp more than converting the “Unsures.”

But can he do enough to overtake Laxalt by Election Day on June 14? Stay tuned, Batfans.

My updated gubernatorial odds…

• Joe Lombardo: 4-5
• Joey Gilbert: 10-1
• Guy Nohra: 50-1
• John Lee: 100-1
• Dean Heller: 250-1
• Fred Simon: 500-1

My updated U.S. Senate odds…

• Adam Laxalt: 2-1
• Sam Brown: 4-1
• Sharelle Mendenhall: 500-1
• Bill Hockstedler: 750-1

(Disclaimer: Odds are published for entertainment purposes only.  No wagering allowed – except for illegal side bets among friends or political adversaries.)

CORRECTION

I had the wrong link in the last Muth’s Truths for the website of Assembly candidate Vida Keller.  Here’s the correct link: vidadkeller.com

The Smell of Fear

“Sorry to be so blunt, about it, but the truth is, every news source is reporting that Nevada’s governor’s seat could flip RED this year.” – Sisolak for Governor campaign HQ, 5/14/22

“I’m going, to be honest. Right now, we don’t have the resources to keep the fight going.  If I don’t have 31 more patriots step up by midnight, we’ll have no chance to win.” – Adam Laxalt, GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, 5/14/22

“It’s Adam, I just met with my campaign manager. He let me know we are on track to miss our mid-month deadline by $112. You know I hate asking for money, but I really need your help today.” – Adam Laxalt, GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, 5/15/22

New Tax Pledge Signers ‘22

“Many politicians promise voters they won’t raise taxes on the campaign trail, but after they’re elected, go back on their word.  The Taxpayer Protection Pledge is a way for candidates to put their campaign rhetoric in writing. A written pledge carries more weight than words alone.” – Conservative columnist Victor Joecks

For the complete, running list of taxpayer champions who have pledged to “oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes,” click here

If you’ve already signed and your name is not on the list, please forward a copy of your Pledge to chuck@chuckmuth.com.  If you need a copy of the Pledge to sign, shoot me an email noting what seat you’re running for and I’ll send it to you.

Citizen Outreach PAC Endorsements ‘22

• Attorney General: Sigal Chattah*
• Secretary of State: Richard Scotti
• Treasurer: Michele Fiore
• Controller: Andy Matthews
• CD 3: April Becker
• CD 4: Annie Black*
• State Senate 16: Monica Jaye
• State Senate 17: Jim Wheeler
• State Senate 20: Jeff Stone
• State Assembly 13: Steven DeLisle
• State Assembly 19: Amy Groves
• State Assembly 38: Vida Keller
• State Assembly 34: Mary Lim
• State Assembly 39: Ken Gray
• Clark County Sheriff: Kevin McMahill
• Clark County Commission F: Drew Johnson
• Clark County School Board: Erica Neely
• Las Vegas Justice Court, Department 13: Suzan Baucum

* Disclaimer: personal clients

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

“In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party.  But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican.” – Elon Musk

“If you don’t know your history, don’t despair. Just read the news every day and you’ll fully understand why the founding fathers drafted the Second Amendment.” – James Woods

Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com