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Mini-Muth’s Truths: April 30, 2010

• There are still some skeptics out there who pooh-pooh automated phone polls, including the ones PMI, Inc. occasionally does for us and the Nevada News Bureau.

• Since they’re automated, it’s always possible that some six-year-old is answering the phone instead of the mother or father of the house. However, the sheer number of calls completed by auto-dial surveys, often ten times the number conducted by “live” operators for traditional pollsters, make those instances statistically insignificant when the margin of error is factored in.

• Case in point, the DailyKos yesterday released Research 2000 poll results in Nevada Republican U.S. Senate primary race which pretty much tracked right along with the results PMI obtained for the Nevada News Bureau in the same race last week. They have Sue Lowden at 38 percent; we had her at 41 percent. They have Danny Tarkanian at 28 percent; we had him at 24 percent. They have Sharron Angle at 13 percent; we had her at 17 percent. All differences were within the margins of error.

• Bottom line: This is still Sue Lowden’s race to lose and she doesn’t appear to be losing it….despite what appears to be her campaign’s best efforts.

• Oh, and by the way, television reporter Brandon Rittiman of Channel 2 News in Reno yesterday wrote that “A new Rasmussen poll shows Angle trailing slightly behind her republican rivals Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden…”

• No it didn’t.

• The Rasmussen poll only showed that Angle, along with Tarkanian and Lowden, were beating Reid….only Angle was beating Reid by a smaller margin than the other two in a head-to-head matchup. But in two actual polls of the GOP candidates in the GOP primary in the last week, Angle trails Lowden by 24 points in one poll and 25 points in the other. That’s not exactly “slightly.” Very sloppy journalism by Mr. Rittiman.

• On the other hand, yesterday’s Rasmussen poll results show Republican Brian Sandoval beating Democrat Rory Reid in the gubernatorial general election by 18 points and Mike Montandon defeating him by 6. Meanwhile, incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons would lose to Mini-Reid by 10. And for those who think that’s “close,” consider the fact that the same poll shows Gibbons’ “very unfavorable” number at 44 percent.

• That’s not unfavorable. That’s VERY unfavorable. Which means, he’s toast. Burnt toast. And it means not only can’t he beat Reid, but he can’t beat Sandoval.

• Which reminds me, in a column I wrote yesterday and published this morning, I expressed an overall sentiment running among many conservatives that Mike Montandon is a solid conservative who can win the general election against Rory Reid but appears to have no chance in the primary against Gibbons and Sandoval.

• But I was invited to a meet-and-greet last night for Montandon put together by a Nevada home-school activist and asked Mayor Mike why conservatives shouldn’t think that a vote for him was, in reality, a vote for Judge Sandoval since it didn’t appear he could win. And in his answer were two words that caused me to rethink his chances.

• Need to do some additional investigation, but when I’m done, I’ll tell you what those two words were and whether they hold any water.

• And finally, I’m heading down to the river in Laughlin for a weekend camping trip with the family this weekend, so don’t be surprised if new postings on Nevada News & Views are a bit spotty….especially if my Internet signal at the campground is a bit spotty.


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