Elko Straw Poll = Updated Gubernatorial Odds!

(Chuck Muth) – Some interesting developments in the Nevada gubernatorial race.

The Elko County GOP held its precinct meetings and convention last weekend. And just so you know, the folks who attended are among the most conservative, active party soldiers in the state.

As such, the results of the gathering’s straw poll are both not surprising and surprising.  Some observations…

• It’s not exactly surprising that solidly-conservative Joey Gilbert and Fred Simon came in first and second; with Gilbert grabbing 40% of the vote and Simon pulling down 17%.
• It’s a little surprising that both Joe Lombardo, who is leading statewide in polling by a wide margin, was tied at 12% with newcomer and relatively unknown Guy Nohra.
• John Lee, who I believe would be doing much better in two- or three-person field than he is in this crowded nine-candidate field, got 9%. Lee’s campaign continues to struggle getting traction with so many others in the race.
• Dean Heller, who banked his entire campaign on the belief that he could best a crowded field based on his name ID in rural counties, got a mere 6% of the vote. While the mainstream media and liberal pundits still peddle the notion that Heller’s the guy who can beat Lombardo…stick a fork in him; he’s done.
• The most surprising result was the fact that Michele Fiore – a known, established conservative who is also the Republican National Committeewoman – garnered just 1% of the vote! She essentially should have had a home field advantage due to her party leadership position…but got spanked.

That said, here are my updated odds…

• Joe Lombardo: 2-1
• Joey Gilbert: 7-1
• Guy Nohra 10-1
• John Lee: 15-1
• Michele Fiore: 200-1
• Fred Simon: 200-1
• Dean Heller: 500-1
• Tom Heck: 1,000-1
• Barak Zilberberg: 5,000,000,000-1

(Disclaimer: Odds are published for entertainment purposes only.  No wagering allowed – except for illegal side bets among friends or political adversaries.)

Laxalt Laxative

In the above-mentioned Elko straw poll, Republican U.S. Senate candidates Adam Laxalt and Sam Brown were in a virtual tie; with Laxalt – who conventional wisdom says SHOULD be running away with this race – besting Capt. Brown by just two votes.

That’s VERY surprising.

• Laxalt’s got the Laxalt name
• He’s a known conservative
• He’s been elected statewide as attorney general (though he lost statewide for governor in 2018)
• He’s been endorsed by both Donald Trump AND Mitch McConnell (Danger, Will Robinson!)
• He’s got deep ties to the DC swamp-establishment
• He’s raised over $2 million
• He’s got DC-based Club for Growth seemingly doing third-party mailers on his behalf every week

And he only beats a newcomer to Nevada politics in conservative, rural Elko by…TWO VOTES?!!

I guess it’s time to set some odds on this race…

• Adam Laxalt: 3-1
• Sam Brown: 5-1
• Sharelle Mendenhall: 250-1
• Bill Hockstedler: 500-1

I’m probably being generous on Hockstedler’s odds, but only because most Republican voters probably haven’t yet read a recent Las Vegas Review-Journal story on his campaign where he referred to President Trump as “an autocrat who wants to be king” and has “split the Republican Party apart.”

He was also “critical of (Sam) Brown, accusing him of using his personal tragedy to generate sympathy.”

Um, that wasn’t a “tragedy.”  It was a casualty of war after his Humvee was blown to smithereens by an IED while fighting in Afghanistan.  His wounds weren’t paper cuts from a filing cabinet accident.  The man spent three years in painful rehab.

Call me crazy, but something tells me Hockstedler’s messaging ain’t exactly gonna resonate with Republican primary voters.

(Disclaimer: Odds are published for entertainment purposes only.  No wagering allowed – except for illegal side bets among friends or political adversaries.)

UPDATE: Vegas Campaign Boot Camp Rescheduled

Due to popular demand, I had originally planned on conducting the next Campaign Boot Camp this Saturday but had to cancel due to a variety of scheduling conflicts.

But fret not.  A short delay and far more extensive program has now been set.

I’ve teamed up with the Leadership Institute – the oldest and most effective campaign training organization for conservatives in the country – and have rolled my Campaign Boot Camp into their Campaign Academy.

The Academy will run for two weekends, meeting on Friday and Saturday, in-person, from 8:30 AM to 4:30 PM, March 25/26 and April 8/9.  The training workshops will be held at the Ahern Freedom Hotel in Las Vegas.

In addition to myself, there will be four other EXTREMELY qualified and experienced campaign instructors – including our own home-grown Erin Phillips, co-founder of Parent2Parent.

The best part: The cost is only $75 per person – which includes all four days, all training materials…and lunch each day where you can network, mix and mingle with other right-thinking conservatives.

You can view the tentative agenda for all four days (subject to change) and register by clicking here.

Odds are, you won’t get an opportunity like this in Vegas again…certainly not during this election cycle.

You snooze, you lose! Sign up today.

New Tax Pledge Signers ‘22

• Monica Jaye – State Senate

For the complete, running list of taxpayer champions who have pledged to “oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes,” click here

If you’ve already signed and your name is not on the list, please forward a copy of your Pledge to chuck@chuckmuth.com.  If you need a copy of the Pledge to sign, shoot me an email noting what seat you’re running for and I’ll send it to you.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

“I am here, standing here on the northern flank, on the eastern flank, talking about what we have in terms of the eastern flank and our NATO allies, and what is at stake at this very moment, what is at stake this very moment…” – Vice President Kamala “The Cackler” Harris in Poland today

Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com