Campaign ’22: The GOP Primary Money Chase in Nevada’s CD4

(Chuck Muth) – The final campaign finance reports for the 2022 primary election have now been filed and over the next few days I’ll be taking a look at some of the GOP primary races to see where the various campaigns stack up.

Let’s start with Nevada’s 4^th Congressional District…

There are three candidates: Assemblywoman Annie Black (disclaimer: a client), Sam Peters and Chance Bonaventura.

Chance jumped into the race right after the first of the year.  He reported raising just $6,500 and only has $441 cash-on-hand.  Nice guy, solid conservative…but he doesn’t have a chance (no pun intended) in this race and never should have gotten into it.

Bright future, but let’s hope he picks a better race at a better time and does a better job at fundraising the next time.

Peters, who’s been running for this seat for over three years, has developed into quite the professional politician; spinning reality like a Tasmanian devil and misleading voters like there’s no tomorrow.

On Saturday he posted a claim on social media: “BREAKING: Sam Peters leads in fundraising 2:1!”  He goes on to claim he raised $637,000, compared to “Other Candidate’s” (Black) $327,000.

But that doesn’t tell the real, let alone true, story.

According to his campaign finance reports filed with the FEC (Federal Elections Commission), Peters has actually only raised $502,001 for all of 2021, plus the first quarter of 2022.  That’s $135,000 less than he (and/or his consultant) claimed in his social media boast

But it’s even worse than that…

Peters also reports owing $96,037 for “Debts/Loans Owed by the Committee.”  That’s not “fundraising.” That’s “borrowing.”  Which takes him down to $405,964 total actually raised for the race.

And then there’s his expenses.

Remember, it’s not how much your raise, but how much you net.  If, say, you raise $100, but spend $75 on advertising (you know, those annoying digital ads and fundraising emails) and other costs to raise that money, you actually only have $25, not $100, to spend on your campaign.

And according to his FEC report, Peters has spent $275,883 on expenses, including consultants, and has $229,450 cash-on-hand remaining as we enter the final 60 days of the primary campaign.

But it’s even worse than that.  Let’s look at the figures for the first quarter of this year after Black got into the race…

According to Peters’ FEC report, he raised $134,548 from January 1, 2022 through March 31, 2022.  However, he spent $159,688 and reports having $203,531 cash-on-hand.  But then you also have to deduct the $96,037 in debts/loans he still owes.  So the remaining cash for the campaign is actually just $107,494.

Now let’s look at Black…

Again, Black didn’t get into the race until the first of THIS year, not three years ago.  And in her first quarter (January 1 – March 31), Black reported raising $327,264.  That compares to the $134,548 Peters raised in the same period of time.

So if you compare apples to apples, Black actually outraised Peters by almost two and a half times!  Which makes it clear and obvious that those folks who invest in campaigns are far more supportive of Black’s candidacy than Peters’ now that she’s in.

Hang on it gets better (OK, worse for Peters) …

Black only reportedly spent $34,715, compared to Peters’ expenditures of $159,688.  In addition, Black doesn’t report any debts or loans owed.  So her ending cash-on-hand is $292,548, as compared to Peters’ $107,494 (after deducting the debts/loans he still owes).

So in reality, as we enter the final leg of the CD4 GOP primary race, Black has a 3:1 money advantage over Peters.

While politicians lie, figures don’t.

And while a recent poll showed Peters slightly ahead in the race, the poll also showed that 2/3 of likely voters remain “undecided.”  That’s definitely not a good sign for Peters, who’s been running for the seat for three YEARS while Black has only been running for it for three MONTHS.

Momentum is clearly on Black’s side.  She’s surging while Peters appears to be petering out.  And remember, when it comes to elections it’s how you finish, not how you start.

Now, since your eyes may already be a bit glazed over with all these facts and figures, I’ll close this point with an example from sports…

On January 3, 2019, the St. Louis Blues were in last place with the WORST record in the entire NHL.  Just five months later, they won the professional hockey championship and hoisted the Stanley Cup.

Black is looking like the Blues.  Peters is looking like he has them.

Stand by.  More to come…

The Smell of Fear

“This isn’t looking good: Reno Gazette-Journal: ‘Sisolak [is] now polling behind candidates once considered long-shots.’  We’ll be honest: This is not the news we wanted to hear at this point in our campaign.” – SteveSisolak.com, 4/14/22

New Tax Pledge Signers ‘22

• Rich DeLong – Assembly District 26
• Natalie Thomas – Assembly District 29

For the complete, running list of taxpayer champions who have pledged to “oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes,” click here

If you’ve already signed and your name is not on the list, please forward a copy of your Pledge to chuck@chuckmuth.com.  If you need a copy of the Pledge to sign, shoot me an email noting what seat you’re running for and I’ll send it to you.

7 Worst Habits of Highly Unelectable People

1. Picking the wrong race
2. Picking the wrong district
3. Picking the wrong issues
4. Picking the wrong time
5. Picking the wrong consultants
6. Picking unnecessary fights with the media
7. Picking door-knocking over fundraising

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

“Adam Laxalt has the name ID and a Trump endorsement, yet he is universally disliked by a majority of Nevadans.  Captain Sam Brown has a huge following of adoring supporters, but is it enough to defeat Laxalt?” – Michelle Mortensen on the Nevada U.S. Senate primary race, State of the State

“The law enforcement group that backed Vulnerable Democrat Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) in 2020 has since rescinded its endorsement and now backs her likely Republican challenger, April Becker.” – Breitbart News, 4/16/22

Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com