Larry, Daryl, and Daryl, Inc. Lose Impossible-to-Lose Congressional Seat
He thought he was oh-so-clever. Strategic brilliance on par with Lee Atwater.
Then he lost a Nevada congressional seat that had never been held by a Democrat and enjoyed an astronomical Republican voter registration advantage.
Heckuva job, Rory!
(Note: From here on out, congressional candidate Dave Flippo will be referred to as “Floppo,” his general consultant Rory McShane will be referred to as “McShame,” and the campaign manager Woody Johnston will be referred to as “Woody Woodpeckerhead.”)
In my Campaign Boot Camp workshops, Muth’s Truths #3 is…
“There’s more incompetence in the field of political consulting than in any field other than TV psychiatry.”
I think I’m going to put McShame’s photo next to the quote on my Power Point slide. He’s absolutely the poster child for it.
In case you’re just tuning in, McShame’s a Nevada political consultant whose sole criteria for client selection is whether they can pay him a fat consulting fee.
He could care less if they’re a good candidate. Only that their checks are good.
Take Dave Floppo (please).
There was never anything about the guy that would lead any objective observer to say, “Wow, what a great candidate.”
But his checks cleared. And that’s all that mattered.
The Magic Carpetbag Ride
After a string of three consecutive losses (if you include the one where he quit) in Clark County, McShame decided to load Floppo up in a U-Haul and move him to the GOP-friendly congressional seat in northern Nevada just weeks before filing after Rep. Amodei announced he wasn’t running for re-election.
How friendly?
Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by 70,000+ voters.
Floppo-McShame then proceeded to trash, slime, and smear James Settelmeyer – an experienced, conservative, northern Nevada rancher – in the GOP primary who was endorsed by both the retiring incumbent congressman and the state’s governor.
Floppo, however, had naïve, out-of-state endorsements coming out of his ears.
All the King’s Horses
He had about a dozen endorsements from current and former members of Congress.
He had the Freedom Caucus, Turning Point Action, CPAC/American Conservative Union, Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, Veterans for America First, and Moms for America.
He had Joe Arpaio, Richard Mack, Greg Bovino, Laura Loomer, Wayne Allyn Root, Brandon Herrera, and David Barton.
He also had the Washoe County Republican Party, the Washoe County Republican Assembly, the Nevada Young Republicans, and the Churchill County Young Republicans.
And he had adulteress and former state senator Elizabeth Helgelein!
Still, the only reason he won, according to my sources, is that one of McShame’s clients, Rep. Paul Gosar, convinced Trump to (foolishly) endorse Floppo two weeks before the primary.
It worked out for Floppo. He won the primary. But how’d that work out for us?
Dreaming the Impossible Dream
At last count – with late mail-in ballots still coming in for the next couple of days – Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson (TBT) is beating Floppo 51-44% and has been declared the winner.
Did I mention there’s a 70,000+(!) Republican registration advantage in the district?
I mean, even in a “blue wave” election, that should have been impossible for a Democrat to overcome.
But Floppo-McShame found a way.
Of course, McShame is already spinning this epic failure like a Tasmanian devil. The excuses and blame-shifting are pouring out of his mouth like a slot machine jackpot.
The Loser’s Limp
Of course, McShame’s obvious, immediate scapegoat is the Independent American Party (IAP) candidate, Lynn Chapman, who was also on the ballot.
And who Amodei announced he had voted for.
But sorry, McShame, you can’t blame her. Here’s why…
Chapman ran for the same seat against Amodei in 2024. She got about 5% of the vote.
What percent did Chapman get on Tuesday against Floppo? About 5%.
And what’s that tell us?
Exactly what I was told last weekend when I was up north for the Nevada Day Parade…
That many Republicans were publicly saying they were going to vote for Chapman, but in the privacy of the voting booth…they pulled the lever for TBT because they were so disgusted by what Floppo-McShame did to Settelmeyer.
Simple Math Isn’t Hard
Now let’s compare apples to apples and look at the number of votes Amodei got in CD2 in the last midterm election compared to the number Floppo got on Tuesday:
- Amodei in 2022: 185,467
- Floppo in 2026: 125,031
Same electorate. Same midterm cycle. 60,000 fewer votes! They just stayed home.
Which, unfortunately, also hurt Lombardo. Thanks a lot, guys.
Now let’s compare the number of votes each got in Floppo’s “home” county (until he loads up the U-hail and scoots back to Vegas later this week):
- Amodei in Washoe County in 2022: 100,244
- Floppo in Washoe County in 2026: 68,792
So the “true conservative” got 31,452 fewer votes than the so-called “RINO.”
Gee, maybe funny money shenanigans and stolen valor weren’t winning issues after all, huh?
Everybody Else Did It
But all the other Republicans lost, too, McShame will claim in the blame game.
True. But let’s look at these initial vote total numbers out of Washoe, too:
- Governor: Joe Lombardo – 81,295
- Controller: Andy Matthews – 80,882
- Treasurer: Drew Johnson – 79,461
- Attorney General: Adriana Guzman Fralick – 75,753
- Governor: Stavros Anthony – 73,889
- Secretary of State: Jim Marchant – 70,691
Every one of them – EVEN MARCHANT (another McShame client), despite raising only a grand total of $ $22,335 – got more votes in Washoe County than Floppo.
And Speaking of Money
I know. I know. Amodei was an incumbent, so he must have had a lot more money to do so much better than Floppo, right?
Yeah, that’s the ticket!
Not.
Amodei spent $1.3 million in the 2022 midterm election to win the seat.
Floppo spent over $2.78 million in this midterm election to lose the seat.
But don’t shed a tear for McShame. He made out like a bandit. Losing by epic proportions paid him very well.
According to Bankrolled, McShame’s firm raked in $621,000 in consulting fees through May 20,2026 – including $103,375 paid to the campaign manager, Woody Woodpeckerhead.
And that doesn’t include whatever “commissions” he might have skimmed off the top for the advertising done through his firm.
But give McShame credit. He’s absolutely shameless.
Taking Victory Laps
As the Floppo Hindenburg crash was unfolding, McShame was on X taking bows for other races he had but a minor hand in.
In one post he congratulated himself for one of his clients, US Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, “stomp(ing)” his opponent “in a blue wave year.” To which I sarcastically replied:
“Wow, a three term incumbent GOP US senator running against an independent in a state with only 12% registered Democrats WON? How in the world did you pull THAT off? Miracle worker.”
McShameless followed that up by congratulating Chuck Gray for winning Wyoming’s at-large congressional district.
“Proud to be part of this effort, leading Protecting WY Values and WY Action PAC,” he bragged.
To which I replied: “Wow! In a state with only a 78% GOP voter registration advantage! How do you do it?”
I mean, come on. Seriously. How hard is it to win a race with 218,000 Republicans and only 31,000 Democrats?
Snake-oil consultants like McShame-Woodpeckerhead love to trumpet their cherry-picked slam dunk wins, but somehow never talk about their epic losses – like Floppo’s.
Which only one political pundit in Nevada saw coming a mile away.
The Oracle
While people like me were still hedging our bets – saying a Dem win against Floppo was possible but highly unlikely – Nevada News & Views senior political writer Brittany Sheehan predicted it clearly and without reservation.
She warned last May: “Teresa Benitez-Thompson wins Washoe if Flippo is the nominee.”
For which she was ridiculed, berated, harassed, and insulted by the Flippoites.
But she was right. They were wrong. And now they can eat… crow.
The silver lining around this dark cloud?
Floppo’s epic loss should mean that no credible candidate in Nevada will ever hire McShame and his thug-like campaign tactics again.
The sooner he’s excommunicated, the better.
Good riddance.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“How is it even remotely possible that a candidate and his gurus could run a race so badly that CD2 is anything but a slam dunk? If Flippo wins it will be despite his campaign, not because of it.” – Chuck Muth, October 13, 2026